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Monday, September 27, in the journal Nature Communications(Health).

According to a recent estimate, climate change and other variables could soon cause the deadly Lassa fever to spread throughout more of Africa's population. Scientists from Scripps Research and the University of Brussels conducted the study, which will be released in the journal Nature Communications Monday(today), September 27.

According to a study conducted by Scripps Research and the University of Brussels, the probability of contracting the Lassa virus, which can result in a serious and frequently fatal hemorrhagic fever condition, may increase significantly over the course of the next few decades. Based on climate models and other information, forecasts of the ecological niche appropriateness for the Lassa virus are shown. Credit: University of Brussels and Scripps Research

Temperature, precipitation, and the existence of pastureland areas were found to be the main viral transmission-related environmental variables after scientists evaluated decades' worth of data on environmental parameters linked to Lassa virus epidemics. According to the researchers' predictions, regions favourable for the development of the Lassa virus may spread from West Africa into Central and East Africa in the upcoming decades. The human population residing in the regions where the virus should, in principle, be able to circulate might increase by more than 600 million as a result of this spread and anticipated population increases in Africa.  

According to first author Raphalle Klitting, PhD, "our research demonstrates how climate, land use, and population changes in the next 50 years could significantly raise the danger of Lassa disease in Africa." He was a postdoctoral researcher at Scripps Research during the project and is currently at Marseille University.

Klitting worked in the lab of Kristian Andersen, PhD, a professor at Scripps Research and a research co-author. Simon Dellicour, PhD, of the University of Brussels, was the study's principal author.

Since the Lassa virus is a "zoonotic," it can spread from animals to humans. In this case, the virus spreads from the Mastomys natalensis, a multimammate rat native to Natal, maybe through its faeces. The remaining infections can cause more severe signs and symptoms, such as low blood pressure (shock), bleeding from the mouth and stomach, and even permanent hearing loss. 80% of infections are thought to be minor or asymptomatic. A high fatality rate among hospitalised patients is usual and occasionally reaches 80%.

It is anticipated that several hundred thousand infections take place annually, mostly in Nigeria and other West African nations. There is currently no licenced vaccine or medication that is very effective.

Lassa virus transmission right now as well as in the years

Although it is known which species serve as the main Lassa virus reservoir, the virus only spreads in some of the places where these animals are found. As a result, it's conceivable that the environment also influences whether and where considerable viral transmission can happen. In the study, the researchers used information on the environmental circumstances at known dissemination sites to build a "ecological niche" model of Lassa virus transmission.

By combining the model with forecasts of climatic and land-use changes in Africa over the ensuing several decades as well as the known range of the Natal multimammate rat, the researchers were able to determine the regions of Africa that could support the transmission of the Lassa virus both now and in the years 2030, 2050, and 2070. The projected areas for the upcoming decades implied a large growth both within and outside of West Africa, however the predicted present areas matched up well with the known endemic zones of West Africa.

"We found that various locations in Central Africa, including Cameroon and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and even in East Africa, in Uganda, will likely become environmentally conducive for virus propagation," said Klitting.

Africa's population is expanding quickly right now. The places where the Lassa virus is currently and potentially spreading were taken into consideration by the researchers as forecasts of this population expansion. They discovered that there might be a more than 600% rise in the number of people who could be exposed to the virus from the current 92 million to 453 million and 700 million by the years 2050 and 2070.

Information on viral genomes gathered from different parts of West Africa to analyse the dynamics of the virus's dissemination and discovered

More encouragingly, researchers used information on viral genomes gathered from different parts of West Africa to analyse the dynamics of the virus's dissemination and discovered that it looked to move slowly. They came to the conclusion that the virus's spread into new ecologically suitable locations in the upcoming decades may similarly be gradual unless transmission dynamics substantially alter in the new location where it circulates.

According to the authors, the findings could influence public health policies in Africa, for example, by encouraging officials to add the Lassa virus to a list of viruses that are being epidemiologically tracked in specific regions of Central and East Africa.  

Additionally, the research was the result of an interdisciplinary approach that combined ecological and climate modelling with molecular and evolutionary studies.

In order to predict potential future changes in their distribution as well as their influence on public health, more in-depth research on the ecology and spread of zoonotic and vector-borne illnesses is required, according to Dellicour. "With the continuing impact of human activity on the environment and the ongoing climate change."

Reference: Raphalle Klitting, Liana E. Kafetzopoulou, Wim Thiery, Gytis Dudas, Sophie Gryseels, Anjali Kotamarthi, Bram Vrancken, Karthik Gangavarapu, Mambu Momoh, John Demby Sandi, Augustine Goba, and Foday Alhasan, "Predicting the Evolution of the Lassa Virus Endemic Area and Population at Risk Over the Next Decades."

The National Institutes of Health, the European Union, the Wellcome Trust, the German Federal Ministry of Health, the Global (Health) Protection Program, the German Research (Foundation), the Research Foundation - Flanders, and the Belgian Fonds National de la Recherche Scientifique provided funding for the study (U01AI151812, R01AI153044, and U19AI135995).

Heath Newsupdat  Lassa fever to spread throughout more of Africa's population.